What is this?
People are very bad at spotting randomness.
Thomas Gilovich provided a classic example with sequence "OXXXOXXXOXXOOOXOOXXOO". This sequence along with many others was presented to basketball fans. Subjects were asked whether each sequence represented hits and misses in a basketball game, and whether it constituted an example of streak shooting. Most of them mistakenly found the sequence above to be indicative of streak shooting. Note that the sequence really has no correlation between outcomes of consecutive shots.
Can you predict the stock market?
Or do we see what we want to see? This website is created in effort to partially link simple common technical analysis of stock market with the same logical fallacies. For a relatively small period of time (100 days, daily data) it is rare for people to be able to differentiate between a completely random sequence and stock market data. Essentially you can't beat the market. Or can you?
This is simply a challenge.
Which one of the graphs is a real stock market price?
Spot a random walk.
This is a replication of research done by Pascal Pensa in Switzerland (?, correct me if I am mistaken - email me), which did not seem to leave any trace in English internet since 2005.